Saturday, May 4, 2013

Espino overwhelms Braganza; BSL by a margin vs. Belen

SURVEY WINNER: Pangasinan Governor Espino shook the
hand of Dagupan City Mayor Lim


 DAGUPAN CITY – Twenty days before the May 13 election, a Manila based survey group found that reelectionist Governor Amado T. Espino is leading by 78.5 percent of the votes while his challenger Hernani A. Braganza clings to 21.1 percent.
 In a press conference recently at the Star Plaza Hotel here, Professor Marion M. Valencia of the Data Advisor ,Inc. (DAI) said 99.6% of the respondents or 1,197,669.00 of would be voters that were equally distributed all over the province of Pangasinan will flock and vote for either Espino or Braganza on May 13.
 He said O.4 percent of the voters said they were still undecided on whom to vote.
Valencia said the polls conducted on April 19 to 25, 2013 was commissioned by David Sanchez who is eyeing a tourism project in the province. “It covered the three cities and 44 towns of the province. It used a sample size of 2,500 adults aged 18 older while the selection of the interviews were demographic
ally stratified,” he explained.
He stressed the methodology used was the popular Gallup Poll in the Unites States for the randomized and proportionate sampling. He said the main application used was face-to-face interviews by trained field researchers to get the electoral sentiment of 18 years old and older respondents.
 The answers were checked at random by the team leaders.
 Valencia also explained that samples were drawn far from each other to obviate statistical, social and political biases. “For example there is an influential person in a certain place who has a command votes to the people there. We avoid the place for sampling because the result would not be representative of the survey,” he said.

Voting preference for the vice governorship says that reelectionist Vice Governor Ferdinand Calimlim trounced out his rival former general Arturo Lomibao with 74.0 percent while the latter reeled by 24.9 percent. The second candidate for the vice governorship a certain Alvin Bailen squirmed to 1.2 percent voting preference only.

 Congressional Race

In the First Legislative District reelectionist Congressman Jesus Celeste got 66 percent vote share (VS) while his rival lawyer Bodie Pulido got 31.3 percent  only. In the Second Legislative District, reelectionist congressman Leopoldo Bataoill got 81.9,while  Maria Blanca Kim Lokim trailed by 18.1 percent.

 In the Fourth Legislative District, reelectionist congresswoman Gina de Venecia got 91.3 VS while challenger Celia Lim turtled paced at 8.7 percent. In the Fifth Legislative District, reelectionist Representative Kim S. Cojuangco got 91.6 percent while former Court of Appeal Associate Justice Demetrio Demetria trailed by 8.4 percent.
 Representative Maria Rachel Arenas  of the Third Legislative District and Congresswoman Marlyn P. Agabas of the Six Legislative District have no opponents.

                                                                       Margin of Errors

“For the positions of governor and vice governor, the margin of error was 2.8 percent.
For the district positions there was a margin of error of 3.5 percent because the sampling was not as big as those in the gubernatorial and the vice gubernatorial race. The raw data were processed electronically at our office in Quezon City,” Valencia, the political analyst of Data Advisors, Inc. said.
He explained that the margin of error of 2.8 percent has been a standard for the 2,500 respondents, while the 3.5 percent  were part of the sample allocation of  371 respondents in the First Legislative District.

                                                 Theoretical Conversion of Votes

According to Valencia the Theoretical Conversion of Votes (TCV) where the 78.5 percent VS of Espino was translated to 943,946 would be voters and Braganza’s 21.1 VS was converted to 253,723 would be supporters . He said the TCV was not meant to predict the actual results. “It merely guide end-users as to the depth of the field of the contest. TCV is subject to margin of 2.8 percent for the contest for governor (plus or minus).
 Effectively, it is a 5.6-percent range because TCV uses a statistical formula,” he said.
                                             Demolition jobs did not affect Espino 

 The data showed that the voters are not buying Braganza's issues against Espino like plunder and the killing of Infanta Mayor Rufino Martinez and Braganza was an “unknown entity” to many voters. It explained there that the contest is “narrow” only in the First Legislative District where Espino got 57 percent vs. Braganza who settled for 40.9 percent.

 Valencia said it appeared that the lead by Espino was irreversible. That Braganza was hampered by low awareness among voters in many areas. He stressed that the endorsements by the highest officials of the land like President Aquino did not translate to votes. The pollsters estimated that 85 percent or 1,414,682 of the voting population of Pangasinan will turn out on May 13 to vote. That out of that 76 to 81 percent will cast their votes in favor of the incumbent governor while 18 to 24 percent would vote for Braganza.

                     Dagupan City Mayor S. Lim and son Brian trounced out their opponents
Meanwhile, a source from the DAI who asked anonymity corroborated the disclosure to this paper by a supporter of Congresswoman de Venecia, who earlier commissioned a survey, that the mayoral contest here leaned in favor of reelectionist mayor Benjamin S. Lim who has a hairline advantage with rival Vice Mayor Belen Fernandez. “That’s true, but if you put the 3.5 MOE it would be either be Lim or Fernandez,” he said. Another supporter of the de Venecias said Vice Mayoral bet Brian Lim has a slight advantage against rival former councilor Michael Fernandez. The source said with a neck and neck mayoral race here, the key in winning would be the monies and dole outs that anyone of them can use to vote buy, and /or the support of the block voting Iglesia ni Cristo sect.

POLLSTER EXPLAINS: Professor Marion M. Valencia of the Manila-based Data Advisors, Inc. explains the nitty gritty of the survey to reporters  at Star Plaza Hotel in Dagupan City on  May 3.  The poll conducted  on April 19-25, 2013 showed that Governor Amado T. Espino overwhelmingly beats his challenger Alaminos City Mayor Hernani Braganza by 78.5 percent of would be voters. MORTZ ORTIGOZA

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