Espino Thrashes Celeste by 73% - 27% in Poll

By MORTZ C. ORTIGOZA

Pollster Saw Losses of Braganza, Cojuangco in Past Guv Races

DAGUPAN CITY -  A prestigious pollster showed that Pangasinan reelective governor Amado I. Espino, III  lopsidedly dominated his challenger Alaminos City Mayor Art Celeste by 73 percent versus 27 percent if election would be held on February 14-24 or  almost three months before the May 13, 2019 election.

Mr. Art G. Valenzuela, manager of  Vox Populi Polls (VPP), cited too that in the same period lawyer Angel Baniqued beat in a competitive race rival Mark Lambino in the vice governorship derby in the province, Second District's congressional bet Bugallon Mayor Jumel Espino outpointed with a few percentages former ally Board Member Raul Sison while seasoned politico reelective congressman Amado T. Espino, Jr pummeled challenger Binalonan Mayor Ramon “Monmon” Guico III.

RIVAL - Pangasinan reelective governor Amado "Pogi" I. Espino, III (L) and challenger Alaminos City mayor Art Celeste. 

VPP had predicted several weeks before the governorship elections in years 2013 and 2016 the heavy loses of gubernatorial candidates Alaminos City then Mayor Hernani Braganza and former Fifth District Congressman Mark Cojuangco when they challenged then governor Amado T. Espino, Jr and his son and namesake the present governor, respectively.

For the May 13, 2019 election, the poll cited that Espino III outstandingly garnered 821,250 votes or 73 percent while Celeste poorly received 303,750 or 27 percent or with a lead votes of 517,500.

“The principal method we used in the conduct of this survey was Randomized Sampling with a total universe or sampling frame of 1,500 respondents of voting age as distributed on weighted averages in all of the 3 cities and 44 municipalities of the province. The poll was conducted February 14-24 on a Confidence Level of 98 percent on the overall design with an error margin of 2.8 percent on the overall landscape/level and 3-5 percentage points on the local application at the city/municipal level,” Valenzuela stressed.

Table 1 below shows the Preference for Governor.

                                       

Rank	The voters in the six districts of Pangasinan are voting for governor:	Vote share %	Theoretical Conversion of Votes %	Spread
1	Amado ESPINO III	73	821,250
2	Arthur CELESTE	27	303,750	517,500

Formula: 2015 household population of Pangasinan 2,956,726 

“In essence, it is a 70-30 ratio in preferences for the position of governor, heavily in favor of Espino. When converted into quantifiable numbers, the figures would show Espino getting 821,250 of the votes against Celeste’s 303,750---a margin of 517,500. These figures strongly indicate that the so-called “command votes” and influence of the Espino political family is still solid. Furthermore, it shows that anyone of the members of the family could very well draw form this “well of goodwill” which was planted by the family’s patriarch---incumbent Rep. Amado T. Espino, Jr. of the Fifth District,“ Mr. Valenzuela wrote on his Statement to the Media.

Table 2 below shows the breakdowns of votes between Espino and Celeste after they were collated in the six congressional districts of Pangasinan.

For GOVERNOR, the voters are casting their ballots by district for	1ST DIST	2ND DIST	3RD DIST	4TH DIST	5TH DIST	6TH DIST
Arthur CELESTE	69	32	17	13	25	9
Amado ESPINO III	31	68	83	87	75	91

In the vice governorship race, Baniqued was slightly ahead with Lambino in a 53-47 percent equation in the provincial politics.

Table 3 below shows the breakdowns of votes between the duo after they were gathered in the six congressional districts of Pangasinan.

For VICE GOVERNOR, the voters are casting their ballots for:	1ST DIST	2ND DIST	3RD DIST	4TH DIST	5TH DIST	6TH DIST	OVERAL %	Theoretcial Conversion of Votes	Spread
Angel BANIQUED, Sr.	60	58	67	35	60	31	53	585,000
Mark LAMBINO	40	42	33	65	30	69	47	540,000	45,000

Second District Congressional candidate Espino led by 56 percent against Sison who got 41 percent.

Table 4 below shows the breakdowns of votes between Espino, Sison, and Butch Merrera after they were collated in the eight towns’ Second District.

The voters in the SECOND DISTRICT are voting for	OVERALL %	Aquilar	Basista	Binmaley	Bugallon	Labrador	Lingayen	Manga- tarem	Urbiz tondo
Jumel ESPINO	56	55	53	55	73	53	59	47	55
Butch MERRERA	3	0	5	17	0	0	0	0	0
Raul SISON	41	45	42	28	27	47	41	53	45

Fifth District reelective congressional bet Espino buried with 84 percent the young Guico who settled with 16 percentage.

Table 5 below shows the breakdowns of votes between duo after they were gathered in the eight towns and one city’s Fifth District.

The voters in the FIFTH DISTRICT  are voting for	OVERALL %	Alcala	Bautista	Bina- lonan	Laoac	Pozzor- rubio	Sto. Tomas	Sison	Unrda- neta	Villasis
Amado ESPINO, JR.	84	92	100	54	94	79	93	75	75	97
Ramon GUICO III	16	8	nil	46	6	21	7	25	25	3

The pollster did not provide the poll, if there was one commissioned, in the First Congressional District where Bolinao Mayor Arnold Celeste dukes out with former Department of Transportation Undersecretary Tim Orbos for the congressional derby.

As based on the figures of Vox Populi Polls, governorship candidate Art Celeste dusted off rival Espino with 69 percent versus 31 percent at the nine towns and one city’s First District, the  bailiwick of the Celestes.

In the 2016 governorship race, Cojuangco outvoted Governor Espino in this western Pangasinan's district through the aggressive partisanship of Congressman Jesus “Boying” Celeste and his younger brother Alaminos City Mayor Celeste.

Mr. Valenzuela did not provide this writer with his scientific polls in the congressional races of the Fourth, Fifth, and Sixth Districts.

The poll was commissioned by a group of businessmen led by Catjoe Tayag from Angeles City for the purpose of knowing the political climate in the province before they venture to any capital investments.

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