The Fluid Electoral Landscapes of P’gasinan

 By Mortz C. Ortigoza

My source I named Deep Throat – 2 or DT-2 for brevity sent lately another round of information about the fluid electoral landscapes of the former Kingdom of Warrior Princess Urduja people now called Pangasinan.

Since I was preoccupied lately with some writing jobs with pay – this one I do now is gratis for love of politics hahaha - I could only post his observations where I put numbers to the salient parts starting from Numbers 1 to 3 where each of them I give my reactions as based on my cerebral and from my sources who know the nuances of politics in the 44 towns and 4 cities’ province.

Here below are the second correspondence of Deep Throat-2 - just like the by-passed in promotion Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Associate Director Mark Felt the real DT to Washington Posts reporters and Watergate Scandal’s famed Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein

The first one where I took several excerpts of his letter and where I opined on them under my blog and column titled “Art Celeste Vs. Oca Orbos?”. Here’s Deep Throat -2 again:

GIANT FIGURES in the forty four towns and four cities Pangasinan province. From left photo and clockwise: Provincial Governor Amado "Pogi" Espino, III, Fifth District Representative Ramon "MonMon" Guico, III, former Governor Amado T. Espino, Jr, and former First District Congressman Art Celeste.

1) My source asked a close associate of (Philippine Military Academy) Class ‘72 if he (former Fifth District Rep. Amado T.Espino, Jr. - member of that 1972 Class - MCO) is going to run in the (Pangasinan) First Congressional District The answer was negative. He said that he will stay in the Fifth Congressional District.

If  Espine (moniker of Espino) will stay in District Five to slug- it- out with Mrs (Ma-An Tuazon -) Guico, Art Celeste will easily beat (Sual Mayor Dong) Calugay for the congressional seat (in the First Congressional District).

If Mrs Calugay will run for the mayor’s post in Sual. (Then former First District Congressman Jesus) Boying Celeste might have a chance to win the mayorship of the riches town in Pangasinan ( – the fortress of Espino’s factotum Dong Calugay who clinched it in a stunning close chess match from the Arcinues who once lorded the rustic town that hosts a P200 million a year from leasee’s giant coal power plant for decades - MCO)

THIS COLUMNIST’S REACTION: Espino has more chances to win if he clash for the congressional seat in the First District against former Congressman Art Celeste. If present Representative of the District Arnold “Noli” Celeste have a close horrifying win against a nobody in Tim Orbos where Nationalista Party’s Celeste got 101,234 while PDP-Laban’s Orbos settled for 93,786  (a lead votes of 7,488 or roughly 4% son of a gun!), how much more the Manny Pacquiao in Espino of Pangasinan’s politics can rake if he is pitted with the more popular of the Celeste’s in Art?

I surmised the Espino Camp is itching on the First Congressional District after the 2019 election showed the vulnerabilities of the Celestes after four of their bailiwicks’ towns Sual, Mabini, Dasol, and Agno went to Espino’s allied mayors.

But former Congressman Jesus “Boying’ Celeste disagreed on this "crack on the armor’s phenomenon of the Celestes" after their version of the flick’s The Gunfight at the O.K. Corral  ensued in the West of the Province.

He told me last February they were financially weak during the 2019 electoral derby where most of their logistics have been trained in the provincial race.

This, to add details on this hoopla, when former Alaminos City Mayor Art Celeste, his younger sibling, challenged the gubernatorial “hegemony” of the modern day version of the Spanish Cacique’s Pogi Espino where he lost by 199,201 votes. Espino and Celeste got 782,073 and 582,872 votes. respectively on that contest.

“It’s another story now because we (four brothers and nephew) are only running in the District,” Boying Celeste explained to me.

***

If Espino mixed it out with Guico, it would be a herculean job because either Fifth District Congressman MonMon or spouse Maan Guico collaborate with each other since Day-1 to be as ubiquitous as they can with their constituents by exploiting the magic of Facebook where hundreds of thousands of the district’s voters there are members. The Guicos aggressiveness for ingratiation on the social media cannot be compared to the Celestes.

In case Espino wins in the Fifth District because their resources are superior (thanks his sons Second District Rep. Jumel and Pangasinan Governor Pogi Espino have no viable opponents) that victory however will be Pyrrhic.

Pyrrhic victory to those who missed it on Reading and Comprehension in Political Science 101 or at mortzortigoza.blogspot.com means “a victory that inflicts such a devastating toll on the victor that it is equivalent to defeat. One could be victorious but the heavy toll negates a true sense of achievement,.

A good example for that was  King Pyrrhus of Epirus  whose army was tragically damaged in defeating the Romans at the Battles of Heraclea and the Asculum hundreds of years ago.

Susmariosep, who was that U.S president who quipped after he won his Pyrrhic reelection? "Another victory like this and our money's gone!"

Common sense dictates that to weaken the financial juggernaut of Espino to ram the Fifth District, Monmon Guico runs for the governorship and leave Ma-An to man the rampart of the eight towns and one city’s citadel. Unless Mark Cojuangco, rich with the hundreds of millions if not billion of pesos inheritance from the late magnate father Danding -- seeks a rematch with Pogi for the governorship - then an Espino and MonMon Guico in the congressional district election rematch is scintillating to watch.

Let’s see if Guico develops the gravitas and the moxie to knockout again the veteran of the province’s politics who will be coming back smoking hot with superior wherewithal to capture his former District he lost to the handsome young Ilocano solon.

***

2) Mayor Gualberto Sison could still win his reelection bid against  (Congressman) Noli Celeste in Agno.

THIS COLUMNIST’S REACTION: Textbook politics says that a Congressman is much much moneyed compared to a fourth class mayor of a lethargic town in Pangasinan called Agno.

 Gee whiz, I even wrote a blog/column’s How Mayor, Guv, Solon Steal to Fund Their Election by dissecting that a Congressman with P1 billion government project annually is more moneyed of what- you- know compared to a Governor and his yearly project and his what-you-know. If Noli emulated how his older brother Boying breaks breads with the people of Sual after he registered there as voter late last year, then he could bludgeon Sison and help wins a town the Celestes lost to the Espinos.

He should be ‘I’m running scared” - as what former Speaker Joe de Venecia told me when I asked him if he was confident in beating congressional rival chains of mall owner and former Dagupan City Mayor Benjie Lim. It would be an embarrassment that Noli, a sitting legislature, lose to a mayor of a poorest town in Pangasinan.

If the national lawmaker has been doing what Boying told me last month then he could win in Agno:

The older Celeste said that he acquired a house in Sual “malapit sa zigzag na daan” where he consults and help solves with the problems of the people there twice a week.

”May sarili rin kaming gobyerno doon,’ he sheepishly told me.

“How many barangays there in Sual?”

“Nineteen”.

“How many Kapitans are at your side?”

“Twelve”.

“Madami. Why they deserted Calugay?”

“Pinagtatanggal niya sa kanila ang mga issued government vehicles kaya binigyan ko sila ng tag-isa”.

He has 14 vehicles there that ferry the residents wherever they need to mitigate their problem in transportation, medication, or whatever.

He told me there that Noli will recede to the mayorship race while Art reclaims his former congressional post.

“Madaling talunin ang mayor (Mayor Sison) doon maliit lang iyon na bayan”.

                                                  ***

3) If Espino will not run in the First Congressional District the Celeste will retain their political control in Alaminos City, Bolinao and other towns. (Anda and possibly Bani) 

That’s my forecast for 2022.

THIS COLUMNIST’S REACTION: Since I am beset with space constraint on the newspapers that this column is syndicated, I just leave No. 3 for you to opine in agreement or disagreement of what DT, hell not the demented truculent Donald Trump but Deep Throat, wrote to me.

But for sure if push comes to shoves the Celeste will retain bailiwick’s Bolinao even if the opponent there is either Trump or Joe Biden. It's their birthplace and residence, man!

READ MY OTHER BLOG:

The Story of a "Red Rose" in this Motel

(You can read my selected columns at mortzortigoza.blogspot.com and articles at Pangasinan News Aro. You can send comments too at totomortz@yahoo.com)